Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.988470e-05 0.000095 0.000111 0.000130 0.000150 0.000172 0.000197
2025-02-02 6.134586e-05 0.000081 0.000104 0.000132 0.000164 0.000200 0.000244
2025-02-09 4.979253e-05 0.000071 0.000097 0.000130 0.000170 0.000215 0.000271
2025-02-16 4.320567e-05 0.000067 0.000096 0.000135 0.000183 0.000240 0.000311
2025-02-23 3.709320e-05 0.000061 0.000093 0.000136 0.000191 0.000256 0.000340
2025-03-02 2.958914e-05 0.000053 0.000086 0.000131 0.000190 0.000263 0.000357
2025-03-09 2.420885e-05 0.000047 0.000080 0.000127 0.000191 0.000271 0.000375
2025-03-16 2.043027e-05 0.000043 0.000077 0.000127 0.000195 0.000282 0.000398
2025-03-23 1.772795e-05 0.000040 0.000075 0.000127 0.000201 0.000296 0.000424
2025-03-30 1.490669e-05 0.000037 0.000072 0.000126 0.000204 0.000306 0.000445
2025-04-06 1.208146e-05 0.000033 0.000067 0.000123 0.000204 0.000311 0.000459
2025-04-13 1.048502e-05 0.000031 0.000066 0.000124 0.000209 0.000325 0.000484
2025-04-20 7.741478e-06 0.000026 0.000060 0.000118 0.000207 0.000328 0.000498
2025-04-27 6.421480e-06 0.000024 0.000059 0.000119 0.000214 0.000344 0.000529
2025-05-04 5.075184e-06 0.000022 0.000056 0.000119 0.000217 0.000355 0.000553
2025-05-11 4.483214e-06 0.000021 0.000057 0.000123 0.000228 0.000377 0.000593
2025-05-18 3.700642e-06 0.000020 0.000056 0.000124 0.000235 0.000393 0.000624
2025-05-25 2.561459e-06 0.000017 0.000051 0.000119 0.000231 0.000395 0.000636
2025-06-01 1.809513e-06 0.000014 0.000048 0.000116 0.000231 0.000401 0.000652
2025-06-08 1.338218e-06 0.000013 0.000046 0.000115 0.000234 0.000411 0.000676
2025-06-15 1.033110e-06 0.000012 0.000045 0.000116 0.000240 0.000426 0.000705
2025-06-22 7.204381e-07 0.000011 0.000043 0.000115 0.000242 0.000435 0.000727
2025-06-29 4.381116e-07 0.000009 0.000040 0.000111 0.000241 0.000439 0.000742